Revolutions from below

Interesting was the Reuters news item with the title, “People’s revolutions don’t guarantee democracy”, which cites a study of Freedom House, a Washington-based human rights group, that said: “The opportunity for freedom after a political opening represented by the fall of an authoritarian (leader) is by itself not a guarantee of an optimal outcome for freedom in the long term.”

The study, “How Freedom is Won: From Civic Resistance to Durable Democracy”, went on to reveal that of 67 countries the group looked at with transitions from autocratic rule over the preceding generation, 35 were “free,” 23 were “partly free,” and nine were “not free”.

This indicates that, according to my reading of the political convulsion now sweeping the Middle East and North Africa, the people’s revolutions being waged in these regions could either lead to: (1) full democracy; (2) half-democracy; or (3) no democracy or status quo. For the third possibility, there is that even greater possibility that a country could revert back to being authoritarian, or worse, become more repressive.

This may be lost among the peoples and their leaders participating in these mass revolutions. Do the people, for example, in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria—the countries now being rocked by political upheavals realize that the morning after they have thrown out their dictators bring them outright the freedoms for which they waged the revolutions?

We are not sure. But the more interesting point is what analysts say about the chances of building a stable democracy. They say the chances “can be damaged if the opposition” (the people now on the streets) “cuts a deal with security forces”, or if I may add, with those inside the present regimes “to overthrew a ruler.”

Good point. I say we have the experience. In 1986, the People’s EDSA Revolution was hijacked when Cory Aquino cut a deal with Juan Ponce Enrile, Fidel Valdez Ramos, and big business that formed part of the overthrown ruling elites and accommodated them in the new dispensation. Because of this, change and reform got sidetracked.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo likewise cut a deal with the same societal forces and elements when she orchestrated with the people the overthrow of Joseph Ejercito Estrada in 2001. The result was not more freedom, but looting of the public treasury and the mockery of democracy.

So, what waits for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa in the morning of their revolutions? If they are expecting democracy and human freedoms, many of them might be greeted by frustration.

“The euphoria seldom lasts long. It is replaced by the challenge of building a fair and democratic society and meeting the expectations of supporters who may be motivated as much by economic hardship as by love of political freedom,” Reuters writes.

Obtaining freedom comes with a price. It is not a walk in the park, so to those revolutionaries from below: Brace up for the hard work ahead.